Artificial intelligence (AI) is often seen as a double-edged sword when it comes to the environment. On one hand, AI uses a lot of electricity and depends on energy-hungry data centers. On the other hand, if used wisely, AI could actually help reduce global greenhouse gas emissions more than it produces. A new study from the Grantham Research Institute, published in npj Climate Action, supports this idea—and it brings some hope for the planet.
AI’s Climate Potential: Cutting Up to 5.4 Billion Tons of Emissions
According to the study, AI has the potential to reduce global carbon emissions by 3.2 to 5.4 billion metric tons per year by 2035. That’s more than the total yearly emissions from the entire European Union. These reductions could come from improvements in transportation, energy systems, and food production—three of the biggest pollution sources in the world.
By comparison, the expected carbon emissions from AI and data centers range between 0.4 to 1.6 billion metric tons per year over the next decade. That means AI could cut far more carbon than it creates—if governments and industries focus on using it the right way.
Smarter Grids, Cleaner Power
One of the biggest opportunities for AI is in energy management. AI can help power grids become smarter and more efficient by predicting energy demand and supply more accurately. This helps balance the grid and reduces the need for backup power from fossil fuels like coal and gas.
For example, AI can help increase the use of solar and wind energy by solving the problem of intermittency—when the sun doesn’t shine or the wind doesn’t blow. By predicting when and where renewable energy will be available, AI allows utilities to store and distribute clean power more effectively.
“Power grids are at the heart of the entire economy,” said Roberta Pierfederici, the lead author of the study. “So improving their efficiency reduces emissions across multiple sectors.”
Changing How We Eat and Travel
Another way AI can help the environment is by changing how we eat. The food industry is a major source of carbon pollution, especially from meat and dairy production. AI can identify plant-based proteins that could replace traditional animal products, helping to cut emissions from agriculture.
AI is also making transportation cleaner. It can lower the cost of electric vehicles by improving battery technology, making EVs more accessible to more people. In cities, AI can promote ride-sharing and public transport by optimizing traffic patterns and routes, reducing the number of private vehicles on the road.
A Role for Governments
While AI has the potential to do a lot of good, it won’t happen on its own. The study stresses that governments must take action to ensure AI is used responsibly and efficiently.
Here are a few steps governments should take:
- Regulate AI development to reduce its environmental footprint.
- Promote energy-efficient AI models and use renewable energy to power data centers.
- Invest in AI infrastructure in developing countries, so the benefits of AI are shared equally.
- Support education and training programs to prepare workers for AI-driven industries.
Without these steps, the growth of AI could actually worsen climate change instead of helping to solve it.
Challenges Ahead
AI’s rapid development also brings risks. As it becomes more powerful and widespread, it could lead to higher energy use in unexpected ways. For example, energy savings in one area might lead to higher consumption elsewhere—a concept known as the rebound effect.
Plus, much of the power for data centers still comes from fossil fuels. According to BloombergNEF, most of the new electricity demand for data centers over the next 10 years will be supplied by fossil energy, unless stronger climate policies are put in place.
This is especially important in the United States, where energy demand from AI is already putting pressure on the power grid. The International Energy Agency predicts that by 2030, data centers will use twice as much electricity as they do today.
The Bottom Line: AI Can Help — But Only If We Act Now
The message from the Grantham Institute is clear: AI can help fight climate change, but we need to act fast and act smart. With the right policies and investments, AI could become a powerful tool for cutting emissions and creating a cleaner, more sustainable future.
However, if left unchecked, AI could also add to the climate problem. The solution lies in guiding AI development toward clean energy, smart technology, and sustainable practices.
As Roberta Pierfederici puts it, “Governments need to play an active role in guiding how AI is applied and governed, to make sure the downsides are managed effectively and the full potential of AI for climate action is realized.”
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