An unusually early and strong nor’easter is rushing up the Atlantic seaboard, bringing several days of heavy rain, damaging winds, high waves and repeated coastal flooding from North Carolina over to New England. The storm is expected to reach its peak between Friday night and Saturday, with the worst effects anticipated in the northern Outer Banks, southern New Jersey, Boston and New York City.
Storm Timeline: When Impacts Hit Your Area
The nor’easter is strengthening as it tracks northward, with conditions deteriorating in stages:
Friday
On Friday rain, some of it heavy, will move into southeast New England, together with stronger winds and coastal flooding at high tide. Gusty conditions will continue from Massachusetts all the way through the Virginia Tidewater and into northern North Carolina and Long Island should expect tidal flooding.
Saturday
On Saturday the centre of the storm moves nearer to the coast, causing locally heavy rainfall and strong winds over much of the coastal area of southern New England; rain extends into New York City and high-tide flooding reoccurs in parts of the mid-Atlantic from New England.
Sunday
On Sunday the system will weaken but will still remain, bringing possible showers and gusty winds through New England and into the Hudson Valley.
Monday
On Monday the prolonged showers give way as the storm finally leaves the Northeast.
Coastal Flooding and Beach Erosion: Where It’s Worst
Coastal flood warnings are currently in force from the Outer Banks all the way to the eastern end of Long Island, covering places such as Virginia Beach, Dover, Atlantic City and Manhattan; coastal flood watches also apply over much of coastal Massachusetts, including Boston.
The worst flooding is likely to affect the northern Outer Banks down to the southern New Jersey coast, covering the Virginia Tidewater area, the Chesapeake Bay and the Delaware Bay. During several high tides over the weekend, water will repeatedly overflow onto roads, parking lots and low-lying properties.
There are also high surf warnings, with waves possibly hitting 15 to 20 feet along the New England coast. Because of the strong onshore winds and the high tides, there is a likelihood of moderate to severe beach erosion in susceptible areas, particularly along the Jersey Shore, on Long Island’s South Shore and in parts of Cape Cod.
Heavy Rain and Flash Flood Risk
The greatest amount of rain is expected along the coastal part of New England from Friday to Sunday, the rainfalls possibly reaching 2 to 4 inches and in some isolated locations up to 6 inches. There will therefore be a greater risk of flash flooding, especially in urban areas such as Boston and Providence, and this could also worsen tidal flooding in low-lying districts.
New York City will have between 1 and 2 inches of rain, with greater amounts falling on eastern Long Island; west of there, in the New Jersey suburbs and the inland areas, the rainfall will decrease considerably.
Wind Threat: Gusts to 60 MPH, Power Outages Likely
High wind warnings are in effect for Boston and parts of New England; the most intense winds will occur on Friday and Saturday between eastern Long Island and the coastal and southeast parts of New England, with gusts reaching as high as 60 mph at times.
In those areas there is a likelihood of trees falling and power failures, particularly in the Boston metropolitan area, in Providence and on Cape Cod. Further south, from the Jersey Shore through to Delaware and the Virginia Tidewater, gales between 40 and 50 mph are possible, together with occasional outages and damage to tree branches.
Travel Disruptions: Flights, Roads and High Tides
Travelers should expect significant disruptions across the Northeast this weekend:
Delays and cancellations are most probable at Boston Logan, with possible effects extending to New York City’s three main airports (JFK, LaGuardia, Newark) as far as Saturday.
In the southeast part of New England, on eastern Long Island and along the Jersey Shore, it is possible to have downed trees, limited flash flooding and coastal overwash. One should avoid driving through roads that have flooded and stay away from coastal areas when the tide is high.
High tides are expected to cause flooding from North Carolina all the way to New England over the weekend, and several sections of coastal highway, such as parts of North Carolina Highway 12 on the Outer Banks, have already been closed because of overwash.
What Is a Nor’easter and Why Is This One Unusual?
A nor’easter is a low-pressure storm which travels along the East Coast, bringing about winds from the northeast. Though such systems are generally linked with winter snow and ice, they can take place at any time of year and frequently cause heavy rain, strong winds and coastal flooding in the fall.
The timing of this storm is noteworthy. It is relatively uncommon for a strong and long-lasting nor’easter to occur in late September. Most nor’easters of significance happen between October and April, since colder air is then more easily obtained. This nor’easter in the early season is using the warm waters of the Atlantic to produce heavy rain and strong winds rather than snow.
Bottom Line for Residents and Travelers
It is a highly significant and multi-day event, and residents ranging from North Carolina to New England should:
Check local weather reports and emergency alerts. This is especially important if you live in a coastal flood zone.
Make sure that outdoor items are secured, clear the gutters, and prepare for the possibility of power outages.
Don’t drive through roads that have flooded and stay off the beaches and jetties when there is high surf.
This weekend there may be delays when flying through either Boston or New York City.
Given the presence of frequent high tides, heavy rain, and strong winds, there is a great deal of potential for damage to property and for disruptions. You should treat this storm with the same care as you would a tropical system occurring late in the season.
